Netflix (NFLX) Modestly Lower Into Q1 Print

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) is modestly lower (-1.1%) into earnings after the close of trading today. Analysts on average are looking for the steaming video giant to report EPS of $0.69 on revenues of $1.57 billion, representing growth of (20%) and 24%, respectively.

The stock is known for wild gyrations following earnings. Last quarter the stock rose 18.5% the trading day immediately following earnings and rose 31.5% in the week immediately following earnings, according to data at EPS Insider. The prior quarter the stock sank 19.7% the trading day immediately following earnings and fell 16.9% in the week immediately following earnings.

For the quarter, RBC Capital analyst Mark Mahaney is looking for $1.56B in revenue and $0.60 in GAAP EPS. They also expect Q2 revenue guidance to approximate consensus, but warns that Street Q2 EPS estimates could be aggressive given the probability of ongoing International market launches and their associated marketing and content costs – similar to the setup in previous quarters.

Maybe more important than earnings and revenue will be subscriber numbers. Mahaney is estimating 1.80MM net new U.S. streaming subs, a loss of 270K DVD subs, and 2.25MM net new Int'l streaming subs.

Sentiment has been improving into the quarter, with Netflix picking up two upgrades over the past week. Citi upgraded the stock to Buy on April 10 and UBS upgraded the stock to Buy on April 13.

The company could also discuss its pending stock split with the release. The company disclosed in a recent proxy filing that it is seeking shareholders approval to increase the authorized shares for possible split of its common stock.

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