First Q3 Outlook for Apple (AAPL) Suggests iPad Will Be Key, China Estimates Shaky

June 7, 2012 1:25 PM EDT
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It's that time of quarter again already...Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) earnings!

Apple last reported quarterly results on April 24th. As expected, EPS of $12.30 and revs of $39.20 billion simply crushed expectations. Earnings growth was a staggering 94 percent, while top-line growth was at 59 percent.

Thursday's early outlook comes from the noted Apple site asymco.

The raw third-quarter 2012 outlook:
  • iPhones: 28.5 million, growth of 40 percent;
  • iPads: 24 million, growth of 160 percent;
  • Macs: 4.5 million, growth of 15 percent;
  • iPods: 6 million, constriction of 20 percent.
  • Music sans Apps: growth of 35 percent;
  • Peripherals: growth of 20 percent;
  • Software: growth of 15 percent;
  • Total Revs: $41.9 billion, growth of 46 percent;
  • Gross Margin: 44.8 percent; and
  • EPS: $11.54, growth of 48 percent.

Though the iPhone will still be the dominant device, asymco sees the iPad playing a much more key role in the quarter. In fact, the site sees the iPad having about 73 percent of equivalent iPhone revs in the quarter.

Trouble with iPhone sales estimation in China is likely to continue.

With the expected launch of the next iPhone imminent, the current version is late into its cycle. That said, asymco noted Apple now has a "portfolio" of sorts: different models at different price points. (In addition, we'll note Leap Wireless (Nasdaq: LEAP) and Sprint (NYSE: S) also signed up for prepaid versions of the iPhone 4 and 4S, which will count to overall numbers.)

Despite supply issues for the iPad last quarter, management has signaled a strong quarter for the device.

Trailing 12-month EPS could be $44.80, with a P/E ratio at about 12.7 times current trading ranges. Cash and equivalents are estimated to grow to $118 million, according to asymco.

Apple shares are up about 0.7 percent at last check.

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