Abbvie (ABBV): Deutsche Bank Comfortable With 20% HCV Share Assumption (GILD)

Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating on Abbvie (NYSE: ABBV) with a price target of $80. Analyst Robyn Karnauskas thinks it will potentially capture over 20% market share in HCV US GT-1 patients, with the rest going to Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD).

"We recently spoke to ABBV management and the color on exclusive agreements for their HCV drug makes us comfortable about our market share assumptions. The company noted that per their estimates ~70% of the US lives have now been locked under some sort of contracting for HCV treatments. Among these 70%, Abbvie has exclusive agreements for 27%, GILD has exclusive agreements for 56% and remaining 17% lives are locked under parity agreements," said Karnauskas.

"If we conservatively assume 80:20 split between GILD & ABBV for parity contracts as well as non-contracted lives, we calculate 24% share for Viekira PAK," continued the analyst.

"For ABBV, we model ~20% market share in US GT-1 HCV patients. Every 5% incremental market share would add ~4% to 2015 EPS. Our HCV assumptions for AbbVie are in-line with company guidance of >$3B 2015 exit run rate. We are modeling 2015 exit run rate at ~$3.05B. Therefore, we believe a >20% US market share would also be upside to company guidance," she added. "For GILD, we model ~80% market share in US GT-1 HCV patients. Every 5% lower share would mean ~3% lower 2015 EPS."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Abbvie click here. For more ratings news on Abbvie click here.

Shares of Abbvie closed at $61.30 yesterday.

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