Nomura Securities Lowers Estimates on UPS (UPS); Export Volume Disappointing

July 26, 2012 11:20 AM EDT Send to a Friend
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Price: $88.55 --0%

Rating Summary:
    11 Buy, 12 Hold, 0 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 10 | Down: 21 | New: 19
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Nomura Securities maintains a 'Neutral' on UPS (NYSE: UPS) price target of $80.00.

Analyst, Mark McVicar, said, "Q2 EPS of $1.15 was slightly shy of our expectation of $1.18 and Bloomberg consensus of $1.17. Within the mix, US Domestic saw aggregate volume growth of 3.5%, an average yield improvement of 0.6% and a margin improvement of 100 pbs, in line with expectations. International Package saw export volume growth of just 0.8% and domestic volumes down 3.2%. The export volume was particularly disappointing, with Asia export volume down over 10% and US exports also below expectations, pushing margins down by 100 bps. Supply Chain and Freight saw revenues down 1.6%, but margins up 50 bps. Underlying EPS growth in the quarter of 7.5% was, in our view, robust given the weakening market conditions. Management has revised down its 2012 expectations. Management expects to complete the TNTE acquisition in Q4."

FY12 EPS from $5.42 to $5.23; FY13 EPS from $5.96 to $5.75.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on UPS click here. For more ratings news on UPS click here.

Shares of UPS closed at $74.27 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $60.74-$81.79.


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