YPF (YPF) Stock Gains

YPF S.A. ADS (NYSE: YPF) stock gained Wednesday, a move that could relate to an agreement with Vaca Muerta oil workers to halt a 48-hour strike planned for today. In other news, Clarin reported that Miguel Galuccio, YPF CEO, could be replaced if candidate Sergio Massa wins election (link).

Update: Bonds in Argentina hit multi-year highs on prospects of a deal to avoid default. Officials met with creditors for 12 hours Tuesday, and while no deal was reached, both sides are back at the table today.

Separately, Goldman Sachs analyst Felipe Mattar published a note discussing sensitivity of NAV to COE and FX rates.

"Overall, for every -100/+100 bp change in country risk spreads to our CoE for YPF, we estimate a potential impact of +/-US$1.6/ADR. Additionally, for every -100/+100 bp change in FX rates, we estimate an average +US$11/-$US4/ADR potential impact. As such, despite the positive upstream case based on the Vaca Muerta’s development learning curve, we believe the stock’s NAV value continues to be significantly dependent on Argentina’s underlying macroeconomic conditions," he said.

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