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With Pesky Q3 Results Out of the Way, All Eyes Focus on Apple (AAPL) iPhone Refresh and All-Time Highs

July 23, 2014 12:34 PM EDT
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Price: $173.79 +0.04%

Rating Summary:
    40 Buy, 24 Hold, 7 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 9 | Down: 9 | New: 41
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Despite seemingly ho-hum third quarter results after the close, shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) are jumping 3% in mid-day trading Wednesday as investors look to bigger and better things.

Namely, with the results in the rear view mirror, investors will now narrowly focus on the upcoming iPhone 6 refresh. Every single Wall Street analyst that weighed in on the stock today put more emphasis on the refresh catalyst than last night's Q3 numbers. The reason in simple - histrionically, Apple refreshes have presented an an opportunity to buy the stock into the event.

The numbers speak for themselves - Apple's stock has historically outperformed by 1100 bp and 560 bp on a relative basis in the two-month and one-month period preceding iPhone announcements, respectively, according to Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi.

Current expectations put the iPhone refresh about two-months away. In the two months prior to the iPhone 5S launch, Apple shares surged 18.7%. If Apple has the same performance this time around, shares could move to over $112.43 per share based on last night's close. This would be equal to $787 pre-split (7-for-1), easily surpassing the September 21, 2012 all-time high of $705.07 ($100.72 post-split).

Any way you slice it, it looks like Apple is on the fast track to $100 per share and then to new all-time highs.



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