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Wells Boosts Estimates on BlackBerry (BBRY) Following Recent Checks; Maintains Outperform

June 14, 2013 7:09 AM EDT
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Wells Fargo is lifting quarterly estimates on BlackBerry (Nasdaq: BBRY) following recent channel checks. The firm has an Outperform rating with valuation range of $19 to $20 on the stock.

Anecdotal checks indicated varied demand for the Q10 across the U.S., though salespeople generally said sales were strong. Business areas saw greater demand and there was also sufficient inventory, suggesting the launch wasn't a soft one. Z10 softness wasn't a surprise ahead of the Q10 launch as most of BlackBerry's 76 million users are "loyal to the keyboard."

Wells noted that, ceteris paribus, every 100,000 BlackBerry 10-equipped units being sold equates to 1 cent in incremental EPS upside.

For BlackBerry's fiscal Q114 (May quarter), Wells is estimating unit sales of 3.5 million, revs of $3.36 billion, and EPS of 7 cents. The firm notes that its unit sales are conservative to the Street consensus, which has risen over the past few weeks, given that it doesn't "have the precision to forecast timing and recognition of US units that could have shipped in the May quarter for sale in June."

Looking to fiscal Q214 (August quarter), Wells is raising estimates with the addition of 1 million Q5 units. Revs and EPS are expected to be $3.4 billion and 15 cents.

Fiscal 2014 EPS expectations are raised to 32 cents, with the Street at 33 cents. Wells commented, "We think there could be upside potential to our FY2014 but take a conservative approach to seasonality and A10 holiday release given current limited visibility (though early buzz is fairly positive). While we are essentially in line with the Street, we think there is little investor confidence BlackBerry will be able to achieve these ests."

Shares of BlackBerry are flat in early trading Friday.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on BlackBerry click here. For more ratings news on BlackBerry click here.

Shares of BlackBerry closed at $14.42 yesterday.


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