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Verizon iPhone Sales Cause UBS to Raise Estimates, Now Top 35M Units (AAPL)

January 5, 2012 7:38 AM EST
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Wednesday afternoon, Verizon (NYSE: VZ) said it sold about 4.2 million of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhones in the fourth quarter. But what does that translate to overall?

According to one analyst from UBS, that may mean overall sales of 35 million iPhones in the quarter, which would provide some upside to its earlier guesstimate of 30 million iPhones.

In December, AT&T (NYSE: T) also indicated strong iPhone sales, with numbers approaching 6 million units. Based on that number, UBS sees AT&T iPhone sales at about 8 million units, with a little kick-in of 1.2 million from Sprint (NYSE: S).

At a combined 13.4 million units, that would be 45 percent of overall global iPhone sales, which UBS indicated hasn't been that high since the middle of 2009. Instead, U.S. sales have been more like 25 percent to 29 percent of overall sales.

Further, the iPhone 4S has been wildly adapted in multiple international markets, though further expansion into China and 20+ other countries isn't expected until January 13th, 2012.

So, using a conservative estimate of 38 percent, that pegs unit sales at about 35.3 million, or 70 percent more than its previous record of 20.3 million in July 2011.

The Street, somehow, is currently modeling for about 25 million in iPhone sales for the quarter.

Everyone knows that iPhone sales have been nuts, and many bloggers that religiously follow Apple have pegged unit sales in the mid- to uppper-30 million range for a few weeks now. Wall Street may have gotten a little more conservative following Apple's fourth-quarter miss in October, but the launch of the new iPhone 4S and further international expansion mean that the most conservative numbers may not be good enough for this quarter.

Apple shares are indicated to open lower Thursday.


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