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UBS on Property Casualty Insurance: Q4 Earnings Wrap - Stocks Underperform on Weak 2012 Earnings Outlook

February 6, 2012 2:17 PM EST
UBS on Property Casualty Insurance: Q4 Earnings Wrap - Week 2

Analyst, Brian Meredith, said, "So far, 10 of 13 companies have reported upside earnings surprises. However, more than half of the P/C stocks underperformed on the day of the earnings announcement and, for our EPS estimates of the companies we follow, the bulk of the revisions have been downward (four down, one up, and three unchanged). We see 2012 as a transition year for earnings, with 2013 looking much better."

"...we are decreasing our 2012 and 2013 EPS estimates for AON and VR and are decreasing our 2013 EPS estimate for WRB. So far this earnings season, the only upward revision to our 2012 or 2013 EPS estimates has been for ACE in 2013. Our 2012 and 2013 EPS estimates for ALL and 2012 estimate for ACE remain unchanged. ACE announced better-than-expected 2012 guidance for underlying profitability, offset by higher guided catastrophe losses."

"We favor AXS into this week’s results. Our 4Q11 EPS estimate for AXS is above consensus, and we think we could see an upward revision of the consensus EPS estimate for 2012."


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