UBS Maintains a 'Neutral' on MicroStrategy (MSTR); Concerns Slightly Outweigh Positives

July 31, 2012 1:09 PM EDT Send to a Friend
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Price: $92.41 +1.23%

Rating Summary:
    2 Buy, 5 Hold, 3 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 11 | Down: 18 | New: 13
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UBS maintains a 'Neutral' on MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) price target of $130.00 (from $143.00).

Analyst, Brent Thill's Q2 review:

Positives 1) EPS came in at $0.65 vs. our $0.29 and the St’s $0.48. 2) 7% OPM vs. our 3% and 5% net margin vs. our 2%. 3) Still relatively cheap trading under 2.0x EV/Sales. 4) Facing easier comps the next couple quarters.

Key concerns 1) Missed our license and total revenue estimates. Q2 license growth slowed to -5% y/y, vs. our +11% est, while total rev came in at $142M vs. our $152M and the St’s $154M. This was the first time since 3Q10 that license rev growth was negative. 2) Deferred was down -12% sequentially, worse than -6% seq in 2Q11. 3) OCF slowed to -$11.4M vs. -$11.2M 2Q11. 4) Last Friday MSTR’s SVP of NA sales left to be President of Software AG USA."

UBS raises FY12 EPS estimate from $2.42 to $2.89, but lowers FY13 from $3.60 to $2.91.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on MicroStrategy click here. For more ratings news on MicroStrategy click here.

Shares of MicroStrategy closed at $118.88 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $100.86-$164.05.


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