U.S. Coal Exports Sink in June; Nomura Cautious on Miners

July 5, 2013 9:11 AM EDT
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Nomura Securities Curt Woodworth analyst commented on coal stocks Friday after monthly coal export data showed a 28% month-over-month slide, with year-to-date exports falling 3%.

Curt Woodworth said, "U.S. met exports had held up relatively well through the first four months of the year, owing to market share gains in both Europe and Asia, in our view. However, June exports to Europe fell 38% M/M to 1.1mt, the lowest level in eight months, while exports to Asia fell 18% M/M. We believe part of the U.S. volume strength in the beginning of the year had come at the expense of margins. Looking to 2H 2013, there is further volume risk in our view, as Australian capacity has ramped back up to full production and more is expected to come online by year-end. While we believe Teck has remained patient with regards to contracting, the realization of much lower new normal met prices could result in more aggressive attempts to reduce spare capacity of 3mt before Quintette begins to ramp up in 2014."

The firm is reiterating their cautious stance on U.S. met producers.

The firm reiterated a Neutral rating and $6 price target on Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE: ANR), a Neutral rating and $4 price target on , Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) and a Buy and $42 price target on Consol Energy (NYSE: CNX).

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Alpha Natural Resources click here. For more ratings news on Alpha Natural Resources click here.

Shares of Alpha Natural Resources closed at $5.18 yesterday.

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US export review must include State Dept. progams
Anthony Alfidi on 2013-07-07 01:47:37
Mark as Spam | Reply to this comment

US export policy needs review. State Department's Office of CBA runs many business outreach efforts. It's a start. Evaluate them on dollar-based ROI, not headcount metrics. http://thirdeyeosint.blogspot.com/2013/07/effectiveness-of-state-department.html

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