Sizing Incyte (INCY) vs. Pfizer (PFE) in Treatment for Rheumatoid Arthritis

November 14, 2012 2:33 PM EST Send to a Friend
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Price: $22.26 -3.84%

Rating Summary:
    10 Buy, 4 Hold, 3 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 13 | Down: 25 | New: 24
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Recently Incyte (Nasdaq: INCY) and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) reported phase II data on baricitinib for treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. Based on results, analysts at Oppenheimer have a positive view on Incyte stock and the drug's potential.

"Although some differences are likely to arise in Phase III, at this point we believe that they will be largely immaterial in the eyes of prescribing physicians. As such, at this time we believe that one of the key differentiating factors between [Pfizer (NYSE: PFE)] tofacitinib and baricitinib is 2x/day vs. 1x/day dosing. We believe that the dosing advantage may be a significant differentiating factor in a chronic therapy drug,” said analyst Boris Peaker.

However, the road to success is not without obstacles, the main one being the timing of the drug's release.

"We believe that based on the current data baricitinib has a high probability of approval. However, in our view the market is generally discarding this upside since approval won't come for another 3-4 years," said Peaker.

Despite this, he sees upside in Incyte stock.

“We believe that INCY's stock is oversold as the current valuation doesn't even cover our NPV for Jakafi and therefore gives no credit to baricitinib or the rest of the pipeline,” concluded Peaker.

Oppenheimer has an Outperform rating on Incyte (NASDAQ: INCY) with a price target of $23.00.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Incyte click here. For more ratings news on Incyte click here.

Shares of Incyte closed at $16.94 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $11.76-$26.30.


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