Shire plc (SHPG): $ Key Programs Not In Consensus - Jefferies
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Jefferies analyst, David Steinberg, reiterated his Buy rating on shares of Shire (NASDAQ: SHPG) after hosing 3 days of management meetings which increased his confidence that the company is well positioned to deliver ~15%+ EPS growth. In addition to many new data points on Xiidra, mgt expects that the hemophilia business will grow nicely – even if there is stiff competition in the inhibitor segment.
SHPG has 40+ programs in clinical testing and at least four late-stage programs appear overly discounted. Mgt projects sales of SHP465 of $500M+ by 2020; double that of consensus. This seems reasonable since every ADHD product launched has exceeded expectations. The second Ph3 asset is SHP621 for eosinophilic esophagitis. Given a dearth of therapies and ~180k US sufferers, peak sales could approach $500M yet Street models have no sales. Finally, expectations for IT programs (Hunters CNS, etc.) & SHP607 (Premiplex) have become heavily discounted due to mixed data or prior development setbacks. All four could become very meaningful products in the 2018-20 timeframe
No change to the price target of $262.
Shares of Shire closed at $192.37 yesterday.
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