Sarepta (SRPT) Eteplirsen Delay Impacts DCF by $10/sh Each Year - Deutsche Bank

November 12, 2013 9:25 AM EST Send to a Friend
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Price: $13.21 -4.28%

Rating Summary:
    9 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell

Rating Trend: Down Down

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 14 | Down: 28 | New: 51
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Sarepta Therapeutic (NASDAQ: SRPT) stock fell sharply on Tuesday after the company said the FDA considers an Eteplirsen NDA "premature." In the view of Deutsche Bank analyst Robyn Karnauskas, every 1 year delay to launch impacts DCF $10 per share.

"Our sensitivities for peak Eteplirsen revenues and delay: All numbers below are at 75% probability to revenues. These market shares are in exon-51 patients only," said analyst Karnauskas.

Adjusted Peak revenues/Market share in diagnosed/Market share in all exon-51
pts/NPV

$100M/8%/6%/-$3
$200M/16%/12%/$7
$300M/24%/19%/$15
$400M/32%/25%/$23
$500M/40%/31%/$31
$600M/48%/37%/$39
$700M/56%/43%/$47
$800M/64%/49%/$55
$900M/72%/55%/$63
$1000M/80%/62%/$71

"Timelines: we currently model early 2016 launch. Every 1 year delay impacts the DCF by $10/sh. We use 12.5% discount rate," said the analyst.

Deutsche Bank has a Buy rating on Sarepta Therapeutic with a price target of $71.00.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Sarepta Therapeutic (NASDAQ: SRPT) click here. For more ratings news on Sarepta Therapeutic click here.

Shares of Sarepta Therapeutic closed at $36.56 yesterday.


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