Q4 Preview: All Eyes on DIRECTV's (DTV) Subscriber Metrics

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DTV Hot Sheet

Rating Summary:
7 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 0 | Down: 0 | New: 0

Shares of DIRECTV (NYSE: DTV) closed up roughly 1 percent Wednesday as traders are dipping a toe in ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter results before the opening bell on Thursday, February 16th.

The Wall Street quarterly consensus for DIRECTV is $0.92 per share in earnings on $7.41 billion in sales. During the fourth quarter of last year, the company reported earnings of $0.74 per share on $6.62 billion in total sales.

For the full year 2011, analysts on the Street are currently estimating $3.39 per share in earnings on $27.15 billion in total sales.

The fourth-quarter conference call is scheduled for 1:00 pm ET on February 16th. U.S. dial-in number is 888-203-1112 and the international one is 719-457-0820. Passcode: 9410265

According to data from Bloomberg, shares of DIRECTV have 12 Buy ratings, 10 Hold ratings and one Sell rating. The average price target on shares of DTV is $52.50 with a range from $32 to $62.

Analyst Comments:

Deutsche Bank forecasts the company will report net adds of 718,000 with 191,000 in the U.S. and 527,000 coming from Latin America. For the quarter, the firm estimates earnings will total $0.94 per share on $7.45 billion in total revenues.

An analyst at Deutsche commented, “Overall, through 2014 we expect U.S. revenue/EBITDA growth to avg mid-single digits while Latam slows but sustains double-digit growth. Thus, total Company EBITDA growth slows from 9.1% in ‘11E to 8.6% in ’12, 8.2% in ’13 and 7.1% in ’14 before no growth in ’15 on the NFL step-up.”

On February 13, Deutsche lowered its price target on the company by $3 to $55, and reaffirmed its Buy rating.
Brean Murray Carret & Co. also reduced its price target on the stock on February 13. The firm’s price target now stands at $57 per share, down from $59. The firm’s estimates are relatively mixed with the Street’s consensus: earnings of $0.79 per share on $7.6 billion in total revenue. Net adds should total 765,000 for the quarter as 550,000 are expected to come from Latin America.

An analyst at Brean Murray Carret reports, “we believe DirecTV’s captil return story remains intact, and Latin America offers a sustainable growth profile that cannot be duplicated in the peer group.”

Brean Murray Carret reiterated a Buy rating.

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