Q2 Preview: JPMorgan's (JPM) CIO Numbers to Be in Spotlight...as Will CEO Dimon

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JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) is lower heading into its second-quarter 2012 earnings report, expected out before U.S. markets open on Friday.

The bank will hold an investor call Friday morning at 7:30am EDT. To access the webcast, click here.

Currently, the Street is looking for EPS of 79 cents on revenue of $21.97 billion. That compares with Estimize numbers of 77 cents and $22.22 billion. Last year, JPMorgan reported EPS of $1.27 on revs of $26.78 billion.

Investors should also expect an update on JPMorgan's CIO losses. JPMorgan disclosed the segment may have sustained losses of $2 billion during a call on May 10th, though many are speculating that those losses have since increased.

Analyst Outlook
Data from Bloomberg currently has 26 analysts at Buy on JPMorgan, 11 with a Neutral rating, and two at Sell. The Street's price target average is $44, ranging from $28 up to $60.

Comments

• Deutsche Bank sees EPS of 91 cents. The firm is modeling CIO losses of $4 billion in the quarter, or $2 billion net of securities gains. The firm also sees FICC trading down 25 percent from last year, but given macro weakness and de-risking, there might be chance for some downside to expectations.
  
  Net Interest Margin could also see pressure given low rate, runoff of customer, and real estate balances, as well as limited funding cost reductions.
  
  
• Wells Fargo is looking for GAAP EPS of 98 cents in the quarter. Being far ahead of the Street, Wells notes that "the incorporation of larger CIO loss assumptions and weaker capital market forecasts may result in further EPS reductions, potentially weighing on share price performance."
  
  The firm sees CIO losses at $5 billion, with each additional incremental loss adding negative 18 cents to EPS, which assumes a 30 percent tax rate and no offsetting transactions. Wells also commented, "We believe JPM would be solidly profitable (12% core ROTCE) in 2012 even if CIO losses reached $9B, and profitability could be further enhanced via the harvesting of $8B of unrealized AFS gains, although we sense management is reluctant to utilize this strategy given the adverse tax and spread income implications."
  
  
• Goldman Sachs is looking for EPS of 60 cents. The firm recently added JPMorgan to its America's Conviction List, saying shares have vastly underperformed since the CIO disclosure. Goldman also noted that the CIO unit accounts for just 5 percent of EPS at the bank.
  
  In addition, Goldman thinks JPMorgan is on track for Basel 3 Tier 1 Common ratio at 9 percent by 2013, even with capital distributions.

Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results within seconds of their release. You can also check out JPMorgan's past performance at Streetinsider's JPMorgan's Income Statement.

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