Nomura Securities October Sales Preview: Wacky Weather in Oct; Pre-Holiday Lull Begins Sales Preview

October 31, 2011 9:27 AM EDT Send to a Friend
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Nomura Securities October Sales Preview: Wacky Weather in Oct; Pre-Holiday Lull Begins Sales preview

Analyst, Paul Lejuez, said, "TJX Cos (NYSE: TJX) Results Tell Us Weather Hurt; Not a Concern for Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST) - TJX reconfirmed +2-3% comp guidance for Oct (on 10/25) but indicated the warm weather hurt results. The last time TJX cited weather as hurting their comps (in August), ROST comps beat Marmaxx by 200 bps (ROST has little Northeast/Midwest exposure, where weather has been mixed, vs. ~50%+ for TJX). We estimate Marmaxx +2-3% this month, implying ROST could be +4-6% (vs. consensus of +2.4%)."

"Still Expect Limited (NYSE: LTD) To Shine; Expect Good ANF 3Q Sales - We continue to believe that companies that had momentum going into the month performed well, including LTD, ROST, Macy's (NYSE: M), and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN). Of the quarterly reporters, only ANF is scheduled to report sales on Thurs. Based on our channel checks we believe results will be strong. In addition, we believe Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) early holiday floorsets are among the best in the mall."

"Top Picks: M, ROST, TJX, LTD - Our top pick is M, given its depressed margins, recent momentum, and potential for large share repo. In addition, given the uncertain environment, we like the off-pricers, TJX and ROST, as we believe trends remain strong. We also like LTD given the current momentum in its business, its pricing power, the potential for another special dividend, and its int’l opportunities."


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Analyst Comments, Retail Sales

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