Needham & Company: EDA 2011 Review and 2012 Outlook: A (relatively) Safe Port in a Storm
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Needham & Company: EDA 2011 Review and 2012 Outlook: A (relatively) Safe Port in a Storm
Needham analyst, Richard Valera, said, "Electronic Design Automation (EDA) demand solid amidst the turmoil. The EDA recovery that began in earnest in mid-2010 continued solidly throughout 2011 despite a healthy dose of negative macro events that caused material headwinds for many of EDA’s semi customers and resulted in expectations for semiconductor growth being trimmed as the year progressed. The SIA’s most recent (early December) forecast now calls for overall growth of 1.3% in 2011, down from 5-6% entering the year, and a modest +2.6% in 2012. Recent negative pre-announcements by semi bellwethers Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN)(Buy rated by Vern Essi) and Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)(Hold rated by Quinn Bolton), suggest even this modest forecast for 2011 will likely prove optimistic. The major headwinds cited by TI and Intel include an M&A related pause in wireless infrastructure spending (the recently suspended AT&T (NYSE: T)/T-Mobile (NYSE: DT) merger—both Not/Rated) and a PC supply chain inventory correction due to the Thailand flooding. In theory, both of these should be temporary (albeit likely multiquarter) events, leading to a pick up in demand perhaps in early-to-mid 2012. If this proves to be the case we expect semi companies to refrain from meaningful layoffs, and as such continue to spend on EDA tools to maintain their R&D productivity. As such, despite some potential headwinds, we remain comfortable recommending all three of the remaining large cap EDA names—Cadence (Nasdaq: CDNS), Mentor (Nasdaq: MENT) and Synopsys (Nasdaq: SNPS) -- entering 2012."
"And then there were three. Early in 2011 it looked like EDA was going to see its first IPO in 10 years as Apache Design filed to go public. However, instead of adding a public company to the group, Apache was purchased by Ansys (Nasdaq: ANSS)(Not Rated) and then, late in the year, Magma agreed to be acquired by Synopsys reducing the number of public EDA companies to three, assuming the deal closes in 2012 as expected. While lowering the number of broadly competing EDA companies should theoretically reduce competition and help pricing in an industry that has historically struggled with pricing, it is also true that a shrinking number of EDA companies—soon to be three from a peak of seven or eight—could reduce the number of institutional investors willing to do the work required to invest in an admittedly technical/complicated space."
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Needham analyst, Richard Valera, said, "Electronic Design Automation (EDA) demand solid amidst the turmoil. The EDA recovery that began in earnest in mid-2010 continued solidly throughout 2011 despite a healthy dose of negative macro events that caused material headwinds for many of EDA’s semi customers and resulted in expectations for semiconductor growth being trimmed as the year progressed. The SIA’s most recent (early December) forecast now calls for overall growth of 1.3% in 2011, down from 5-6% entering the year, and a modest +2.6% in 2012. Recent negative pre-announcements by semi bellwethers Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN)(Buy rated by Vern Essi) and Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)(Hold rated by Quinn Bolton), suggest even this modest forecast for 2011 will likely prove optimistic. The major headwinds cited by TI and Intel include an M&A related pause in wireless infrastructure spending (the recently suspended AT&T (NYSE: T)/T-Mobile (NYSE: DT) merger—both Not/Rated) and a PC supply chain inventory correction due to the Thailand flooding. In theory, both of these should be temporary (albeit likely multiquarter) events, leading to a pick up in demand perhaps in early-to-mid 2012. If this proves to be the case we expect semi companies to refrain from meaningful layoffs, and as such continue to spend on EDA tools to maintain their R&D productivity. As such, despite some potential headwinds, we remain comfortable recommending all three of the remaining large cap EDA names—Cadence (Nasdaq: CDNS), Mentor (Nasdaq: MENT) and Synopsys (Nasdaq: SNPS) -- entering 2012."
"And then there were three. Early in 2011 it looked like EDA was going to see its first IPO in 10 years as Apache Design filed to go public. However, instead of adding a public company to the group, Apache was purchased by Ansys (Nasdaq: ANSS)(Not Rated) and then, late in the year, Magma agreed to be acquired by Synopsys reducing the number of public EDA companies to three, assuming the deal closes in 2012 as expected. While lowering the number of broadly competing EDA companies should theoretically reduce competition and help pricing in an industry that has historically struggled with pricing, it is also true that a shrinking number of EDA companies—soon to be three from a peak of seven or eight—could reduce the number of institutional investors willing to do the work required to invest in an admittedly technical/complicated space."
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