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Medivation's (MDVN) Xtandi Could See Strong Upside Following PREVAIL - Analyst

December 3, 2012 11:12 AM EST Send to a Friend
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Medivation (Nasdaq: MDVN) shares are higher on the session amid positive comments out of Jefferies earlier.

The firm, which rates Medivation at Buy with a price target of $62 -- said recent data from its second CRPC survey points to good things for Xtandi. Jefferies commented that oncologists used Xtandi in 6 percent of pre-chemo patients and 12 percent of post-chemo patients, versus Jefferies' expectations of no usage in pre and 3 percent in post.

Jefferies also noted, "For 2013, our respondents expect to prescribe Xtandi in 20% of pre-chemo and 33% of post-chemo, v. our ests of 1% (~$31M in sales) and 14% (~$239M), respectively, and w/ a 50% discount (our survey std) to survey data suggests our model assumptions may be conservative, especially in prechemo. Importantly, nearly half (~43%) of Xtandi post-chemo market share gains in '13 (v. '12) come from Zytiga."

On the PREVAIL outcome, Jefferies said, "if a ~9-mo benefit was observed, ~40% of our respondents would consider prescribing Xtandi over Zytiga. If a 10-11 mo benefit is observed, ~65% would consider it. When asked to assume a ~12-mo benefit, the respondents’ 2014 expectations for Xtandi use was ~41% share in pre-chemo (v. JEF est of 2%) and implying potential upside."

Shares of Medivation are up about 3 percent Monday.

NOTE: Earlier, Jefferies commented on Dendreon's (Nasdaq: DNDN) Provenge. Click here for more color.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Medivation click here. For more ratings news on Medivation click here.

Shares of Medivation closed at $52.15 yesterday.




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