Jefferies Uber-Bullish on TiVo (TIVO) Ahead of Tonights Results

November 28, 2012 11:03 AM EST
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Price: $11.34 --0%

Rating Summary:
    12 Buy, 15 Hold, 0 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 30 | Down: 30 | New: 23
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Shares of TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO) are mildly higher early Wednesday after Jefferies lifted its price target from $14 to $15 and reiterated its Buy rating ahead of third quarter earnings after the close tonight.

"We are positive on TIVO ahead of earnings as momentum with US cable operators continues. TiVo announced the third new MSO partnership (Cable ONE) in the past nine weeks," analysts Brian Fitzgerald and Brian Pitz said. Cable ONE, which is the tenth largest MSO in the US serving 740K subscribers across 19 states, they note.

On the quarter, the firm notes the quarter could be messy given the Verizon settlement. They are looking for service and tech revenue of $59.6MM and Adj. EBITDA of $81.1MM, which will be driven by the 1x upfront payment from Verizon presented as an opex item. For GAAP EPS they expect $0.60. On subs, the firm notes that Virgin Media added 206K TiVo subs during the quarter and ONO now has 56K TiVo subs. "At both partners, TiVo is driving higher customer satisfaction, lower churn, and increased ARPU," the analyst comment.

Jefferies also introduced a new sum of the parts model. "Assuming worst-case outcomes, our new SOTP values guaranteed legal payments, NOL's and cash at $8 / share. This excludes the core business and does not account for add'l settlements from CSCO / Motorola, suggesting substantial upside to current levels." Including a potential $1-2B settlement from Motorola, this goes to $15-$20/share.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on TiVo click here. For more ratings news on TiVo click here.

Shares of TiVo closed at $10.21 yesterday.

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