Jefferies Sees Decelerating Smartphone Sales Ahead of Major Launches (AAPL) (BBRY)

February 20, 2013 12:03 PM EST
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Jefferies said their survey and checks indicate that smartphone sales seem to be decelerating in front of some major launches such as Samsung Galaxy S4 and iPhone 5S.

They see risk to their CQ1 Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone shipment estimate due to additional build plan cuts, but raise February-quarter estimates on Buy-rated BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) due to BB10 sales.

On Apple, analyst Peter Misek notes that with the Chinese New Year now over, builds for total CQ1 iPhone have been revised down from 30M-35M to 20M-25M. "Suppliers seem to be prepping for iPhone 5S builds to start in March, and Apple is adjusting inventory levels, which we are still attempting to quantify. For now we maintain our iPhone shipment estimate of 37.5M and revenues/EPS estimate of $42.7B/$10.04 (St $43.0B/$10.26; guidance $41-$43B), but could be at risk." The firm maintains a Hold rating and $500 price target on AAPL.

On BlackBerry, Misek said initial Z10 sales have not been as bad as many feared and recent launches in France, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait have gone well. In the UK 20%+ of Carphone Warehouse phones are out of stock based on Tuesday night checks. "We raise Feb Q estimates from $2.5B/$(0.42) to $2.8B/$(0.34) after including 500K BB10 shipments but remain slightly below St $2.9B/$(0.33). We note consensus estimates have decreased over the last six weeks. We remain well above St for the May Q and Aug Q (we estimate 4M BB10 sales at a $600 ASP and 30% GM in each quarter) but reiterate that it is not just about the phone. We continue to see software opportunities in mobile device management and BYOD to drive value." The firm maintained a Buy rating and price target of $19.50 on BBRY.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on BlackBerry click here. For more ratings news on BlackBerry click here.

Shares of BlackBerry closed at $14.36 yesterday.

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