Jefferies Maintains a 'Buy' on Dynavax Technologies (DVAX); Broad Adult Label Should Be A Positive For Heplisav and Diabetes Opportunity
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Jefferies maintains a 'Buy' on Dynavax Technologies (NASDAQ: DVAX) price target raised from $5 to $6.
Jefferies analyst says, "We are changing our model to assume a lucrative global partnership (with $75m upfront and 25% aggregate royalty rate) is signed by 4Q12 to commercialize Heplisav with a broader commercial reach. As a result, our US diabetes share for Heplisav increases from 37% to 52% in 2020, with WW revenues increasing from $339m to $418m. Separately, we are lowering our assumption for the effective royalty rate (from 25% to 15%) DVAX must pay to secure licenses to the broad patents covering hepatitis B surface antigen. As a result of the minor delay in filing Heplisav, we are assuming a later launch in mid-2013, but the delay is immaterial to our valuation. We see potential upside from a strong pharma partner’s reach to target a full diabetes population and further upside from a broader overall adult indication."
Jefferies raises FY11 EPS estimate from (0.47) to (0.44), lowers FY12 from (0.10) to (0.18), and raises FY13 from $0.39 to $0.80.
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Dynavax Technologies click here. For more ratings news on Dynavax Technologies click here.
Shares of Dynavax Technologies closed at $4.08 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $1.75-$4.21.
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Jefferies analyst says, "We are changing our model to assume a lucrative global partnership (with $75m upfront and 25% aggregate royalty rate) is signed by 4Q12 to commercialize Heplisav with a broader commercial reach. As a result, our US diabetes share for Heplisav increases from 37% to 52% in 2020, with WW revenues increasing from $339m to $418m. Separately, we are lowering our assumption for the effective royalty rate (from 25% to 15%) DVAX must pay to secure licenses to the broad patents covering hepatitis B surface antigen. As a result of the minor delay in filing Heplisav, we are assuming a later launch in mid-2013, but the delay is immaterial to our valuation. We see potential upside from a strong pharma partner’s reach to target a full diabetes population and further upside from a broader overall adult indication."
Jefferies raises FY11 EPS estimate from (0.47) to (0.44), lowers FY12 from (0.10) to (0.18), and raises FY13 from $0.39 to $0.80.
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Dynavax Technologies click here. For more ratings news on Dynavax Technologies click here.
Shares of Dynavax Technologies closed at $4.08 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $1.75-$4.21.
Discover Wall Street's best ratings calls with the pros - Ratings Insider Elite. Free Trial!
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