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Jefferies Lowers Numbers on Celgene (CELG); Two Possible Pathways

June 22, 2012 10:58 AM EDT Send to a Friend
Get Alerts CELG Hot Sheet
Price: $141.25 -2.47%

Rating Summary:
    20 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell

Rating Trend: Down Down

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 26 | Down: 10 | New: 8
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Jefferies maintains a 'Buy' on Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG) price target of $75.00 (from $85.00).

Analyst, Thomas Wei, said, "CELG announced that it has withdrawn its EU filing for front-line Revlimid. CELG noted the decision was based on EU regulator concerns that Revlimid could have negative effect on survival due to second primary malignancies (SPMs). We remain encouraged though by the management’s characterization of the pathways to approval, and we would be buyers on weakness."

"Our Take: Two Possible Pathways Could Lead To EU Front-Line Launch In
2014-2015. We do not believe CELG needs to show a significant OS benefit in the IFM or MM-015 trials, but only observe a sufficient number of events to ensure that Revlimid is not associated with a negative impact on survival. In effect, we believe the most convincing argument may be some statistical analysis showing that the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval for the OS hazard ratio falls above a certain threshold, which should be just a matter of time and accruing sufficient events. We see this as a much lower risk hurdle than needing to demonstrate an outright overall survival benefit."

FY12 EPS estimtae lowered from $4.94 to $4.81 and FY13 from $5.05 to $4.36.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Celgene click here. For more ratings news on Celgene click here.

Shares of Celgene closed at $59.45 yesterday.




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