Jefferies Boosts PT on Radius Health (RDUS) to $46 Amid Solid Physician Poll Data

Jefferies boosts its price target on Hold-rated Radius Health (Nasdaq: RDUS) from $37 to $46 today following recent physician poll results.

Analyst Eun Yang commented, Our physician poll shows convenient abalo-TD patch for osteoporosis, if successful, would increase abalo use by ~25-30% (vs. injectable abalo-SC). Given abalo-TD patch late-breaker presentation on 9/19/16 and likely positive bioequivalence data, we raise estimates and target, but the impact isn’t enough to justify a Buy. While we don't take a strong view on recent M&A speculation, some rumored buyers don't seem a right fit, in our view.

Ahead of first human PK data for RDUS’ optimized abalo-TD patch for PMO, we conducted a poll of 27 U.S. rheumatologists/endocrinologists to assess potential market expansion of abalo franchise, if successfully developed. With abalo-TD patch data in a late-breaker oral session at ASBMR on 9/19/16, we/Street assume positive data (although how good the data would be is debatable), warranting further development for potential approval. Daily SC injectable formulation of abalo (abalo-SC) is under regulatory reviews (PDUFA date 3/30/17).

Poll results show abalo-TD patch would increase physicians' utilization of abaloparatide by ~25-30% on improved convenience (vs. abalo-SC alone). Although a clear development path to approval is yet-to-be defined for abalo-TD patch, if bioequivalence data (vs. abalo-SC) are positive, we assume a likely shortened path to approval (potentially entering the market in ~2018-2019).

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