Harley-Davidson (HOG) Shares Continue To Surprise...Barclays Analyst Says Catalyst Rich

July 5, 2012 4:49 PM EDT Send to a Friend
Get Alerts HOG Hot Sheet
Price: $59.48 +2.60%

Rating Summary:
    9 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 11 | Down: 35 | New: 23
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Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) shares continue to surprise, ending the session up 0.86%. General consensus is that the economy is still sluggish, which, for the middle class means purchasing luxury recreational vehicles gets pushed to the back burner. But, Harley-Davidson is twisting the throttle and shifting into high gear.

Looking at the two year chart of HOG, shares have more than doubled. Time to pick up my lower jaw. All the doom and gloom, Europe continually affecting the U.S., China growth slowing, unemployment still high, average family incomes back down to 2007 levels, and the list goes on. Well, God bless America, since riding a HOG is as familiar an American theme as Apple pie.

Just recently, (mid-April) Citi and Barclays upgraded shares of HOG to Buy/Overweight (even after an incredible run). Amazingly, at the beginning of 2012, Harley reported a good Q4 profit, with sales up double digits, appointed the CEO to Chairman, and raised its dividend...huh? Are we still talking about $25,000 chromed out, sweet-sounding motorcycles?

Overall, the company had previously implemented a restructuring plan, which seems to be working rather well. Barclays analyst, Felicia R. Hendrix, believes in this plan, along with the recovery in the U.S., International expansion and other future growth catalysts. Dealerships have also lightened inventories to keep expenses down.

9 out of 10 people are still working in this country, and there are many baby-boomers ready to retire and take on the road. With all these tidbits, I don't think I'm ready to bet against HOG just yet. However, the company is scheduled to report Q2 earnings on August 1, 2012, and the release will be closely watched by investors. (Current Street consensus is $1.06 and $1.63B)

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