Goldman Sachs Says Data Suggests Risk to Amazon.com's (AMZN) Q4 Top-Line Number

December 29, 2011 7:10 AM EST Send to a Friend
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Goldman Sachs commented on Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) Thursday, saying while holiday US eCommerce was robust, one datapoint suggests a top-line miss.

On Wednesday, comScore reported that holiday season spending through December 25 totaled $35.3 billion, up 15 percent. Goldman notes that for the past five years the data has matched growth for the full holiday season, and on average, Amazon's yoy sales growth in the fourth quarter has outpaced holiday season eCommerce by 23 points.

Based on this data, Goldman said this would imply top-line growth at Amazon of 38% to $17.87 billion, which is slightly below current consensus of $18.19 billion (up 40%)

Goldman's Q4 forecast stands at $18.62 billion, or up 44%, and includes 3-4 points of growth from Kindle and Kindle Fire not currently incorporated in Street consensus.

"While the comScore numbers are just one data point which does not capture international sales or breakout individual companies’ sales, taken alone they seem to suggest the potential for downside risk to consensus forecasts for 4Q2012", analyst Heather Bellini comments.

The firm maintained their Neutral rating and $190 price target.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Amazon.com click here. For more ratings news on Amazon.com click here.

Shares of Amazon.com closed at $173.89 yesterday.


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