GoPro (GPRO): Including 2014 In Comp Analysis Paints A Dire Picture - Dougherty
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Dougherty & Co analyst, Charles Andersn, reiterated his Neutral rating on shares of GoPro (NASDAQ: GPRO) but noted that in October, GoPro continued to comp positive Y/Y vs. 2015 in terms of both Google searches and app store rankings.
The last time GoPro had a major product launch ahead of the Q4 holidays was 2014 and he expanded his analysis to include that year. Q416 consensus estimates appear to assume that GoPro will deliver camera units similar to Q414, when the company shipped ~2.4MM units. In other words, the expectation is that the Hero5 product launch is roughly on par with the Hero4 product launch.
Using that comparison, Google searches for "GoPro" in October 2016 were down 20% globally and down 28% in the U.S. vs. October 2014. YouTube searches for "GoPro" in October 2016 were down 49% vs. October 2014. We note that these two-year comparisons were all positive through May 2016, consistent with GoPro's implied unit sell-through of ~1.1MM/Q in 1H16 vs. ~850K/Q in 1H14.
Shares of GoPro closed at $12.48 yesterday.
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