Florida Insurers Brace for Hurricane Matthew Losses (UVE) (ALL) (AIG) (MET) (PGR) (TRV)

October 6, 2016 12:53 PM EDT
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With Hurricane Matthew bearing down on Florida's Atlantic Coast, analysts are busy putting pencil to paper to try go figure out losses and exposure.

FBR Capital analyst Randy Binner is assuming an insured event between $3 billion and $7 billion. They believe the hurricane will affect the following names they cover: AIG (NYSE: AIG), Allstate (NYSE: ALL), MetLife (NYSE: MET), Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR), and Travelers (NYSE: TRV).

"This level of event will likely be notable for earnings of exposed insurers, but it is not a large event in terms of industry capital capacity," the analyst said. "In addition, an industry event of this size does not appear likely to materially trigger reinsurance in most cases, so our initial expectation is that primary insurers likely will take the majority of losses."

They estimate the following incremental EPS losses for 4Q16E: ALL at $0.16, AIG at $0.08, HIG at $0.08, MET at $0.01, PGR at $0.05, and TRV at $0.07. PGR.

Another Florida residential insurer being impacted, but not one coverage by FBR, is Universal Insurance Holdings (NYSE: UVE). Shares of UVE are down 15.6% today ahead of the storm.

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