Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) Proprietary Review Handicaps Sola in EXPEDITION-3 At 75% Success - BMO
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Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY)
BMO Capital analyst, Alex Arfei, reiterated his Outperform rating on shares of Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) after conducting an extensive scientific review in Alzheimer's disease. He now estimates ~75% probability that Lilly's EXPEDITION-3 (E3) trial will meet its primary endpoint of slowing cognitive decline because E3 should amplify the results from E-1&2 with lower variance given its meaningfully larger, enriched sample, more sensitive single primary endpoint, and lower geographic variance.
The analyst believes LLY should appreciate 15-20% with this year-end catalyst with a downside risk of E3 failure at 20% with 25% probability.
No change to the price target of $94.
Shares of Eli Lilly closed at $81.16 yesterday.
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