Drexel Hamilton Apple Monitor 'Very Strong' (AAPL)
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Drexel Hamilton analyst Brian White reiterated a Buy rating and $185 price target on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) citing a "very strong" Apple monitor ahead of the iPhone 7 launch.
- As of this morning, nearly all of the companies (97% of sales) in our Apple Monitor have reported August sales and the performance was much better than historical averages.
- Similar to the summer of 2013, we believe this summer will prove to be a bottoming process for Apple's stock with our estimates indicating that the sales and profit cycle bottomed in 3Q:FY16. Trading at less than 9x our CY:17 EPS estimate (ex-cash) with the iPhone 7 to be unveiled today and the iPhone 8 in 2017, we believe Apple represents an attractive value.
- With 97% of the sales reported, preliminary August sales for our Apple Monitor rose by approximately 17-19% MoM and much stronger than the average increase of 7% over the past eleven years. Given the increased seasonality around the iPhone, August sales over the past five years for our Apple Monitor have risen by 6% MoM and increased by 13% in August 2015.
- If we assume an average MoM sales increase in September, we estimate 3Q:16 sales for our Apple Monitor will rise by 35-37% QoQ and much better than the average increase of 19% over the past eleven years. By comparison, we are modeling nearly a 9% QoQ sales increase for Apple in the September quarter versus a five-year average increase of 5% for past September quarters.
- We believe today's iPhone 7/7 Plus unveiling will provide for a solid upgrade for consumers but we are not anticipating a major change in form factor or aesthetics until iPhone 8 in 2017. The massive upgrade cycle with the iPhone 6 that drove 37% iPhone unit growth in FY:15, negatively impacted demand for the iPhone 6s. As a consequence, the upgrade rates with the iPhone 6s were muted and we are projecting a 9% YoY decline in iPhone units in FY:16. We believe the iPhone unit cycle troughed in 2Q:FY16 and we expect iPhone unit growth to return in 2Q:FY17 with the iPhone 7 and growth for FY:17.
Shares of Apple closed at $107.70 yesterday.
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