Deutsche Still Sees Amazon (AMZN) as Top Player, Tweaks Estimates to Factor in Japan’s Tragedy

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Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating on shares of Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) due to its fundamental strength in e-commerce globally, but tweaked its estimates as it factors in the recent tragedy in Japan.

The firm estimates Japan makes up 12% of Amazon's revenue and as a result is lowering its Q2 revenue estimate by $200 million to $8.48 billion and its EPS estimate by $0.08 to $0.65. Deutsche notes since the earthquake occurred late in the Q1, it doesn't see much impact on sales in the period.

The firm also lowered its FY11 EPS and revenue estimates from $3.91 and $44.3 billion to $3.83 and $44.1 billion. The firm is maintaining its 2012 estimates of a $5 EPS and $54.6 billion in revenue, along with its price target of $192.

As Japan works to clean up after the disaster sales for Amazon will slowly come back. Currently its hard for its Japanese customers to receive packages as roads need to be repaired and black-outs are still present.

An analyst at Deutsche comments that, "While it is unclear how much of an impact these issues have on everyday business at Amazon, our conversations with other companies with Japan ops would regular business activity has been impacted. We have assumed that sales at Amazon.co.jp are running at 70% of typical run-rates and have adjusted our assumptions."

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