Deutsche Bank Cuts Estimates & PT on Tenet Healthcare (THC); Q3 Shortfall Pre-announced; 2011 Guidance Now Looks Aggressive

September 12, 2011 1:01 PM EDT Send to a Friend
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Price: $45.83 --0%

Rating Summary:
    14 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 0 | Down: 1 | New: 1
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Deutsche Bank maintains a 'Hold' on Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC) price target lowered from $7.50 to $6.00.

Deutsche analyst says, "Ahead of an investor conference, THC disclosed prelim Q3 results that look significantly below expectations. THC guided Q3 EBITDA to flat yoy or ~25% shortfall vs. consensus of ~$275M; THC is citing weak Medicare case mix, higher growth in low-margin Medicaid volumes and higher insurance accruals due to a lower discount rate. With Q3 trends, THC is guiding to the low-end of $1.175-$1.275B EBITDA guidance range. However, we believe CY11 guidance looks aggressive in light of recent trends...As such, our revised 2011 EBITDA is $1.15B ($1.26B) and our 2012 EBITDA is reduced to $1.22B ($1.34B). With wobbly patient mix and short-term margins under pressure (Q3 margin est’d at 9%), THC’s long-term margin outlook of mid/upper teens will be questioned."

For more ratings news on Tenet Healthcare click here and for the rating history of Tenet Healthcare click here.

Shares of Tenet Healthcare closed at $5.02 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $3.96-$7.70.


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