Collins Stewart Maintains a 'Buy' on Human Genome Sciences (HGSI); Benlysta Survey #4: Suggests 76% MoM Patient Growth for Aug
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Price: $14.24 --0%
Rating Summary:
3 Buy, 17 Hold, 1 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 15 | Down: 11 | New: 13
Rating Summary:
3 Buy, 17 Hold, 1 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 15 | Down: 11 | New: 13
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Collins Stewart maintains a 'Buy' on Human Genome Sciences (NASDAQ: HGSI) price target of $35.00.
Collins analyst says, "Investment Thesis - 56% MoM Benlysta patient growth in July: For July, our Benlysta tracking survey (N=30) showed patient growth of 56% MoM (42 vs. 27 in June) with a 10% increase in physicians administering the drug (11 vs. 10 in June). While uptake was likely impacted by the July 4th holiday/seasonality, as evidenced by 2 physicians who delayed patient starts due to vacations, we believe August utilization expectations (14 physicians expect to treat 74 patients; 76% MoM growth) and the lack of significant reimbursement issues to date are positive. Extrapolating our survey results to the broader physician population, we arrive at July Benlysta sales of $4.3M vs. WK and IMS July sales of $4.9M (+5% MoM; 2 fewer treating days in July) and $5.0M (+20% MoM when June is adjusted for 1 additional prescribing week), respectively. Given that our survey projects August sales of $5.9M (may also be affected by seasonality), we believe robust uptake in September is required to achieve 3Q11 Benlysta revenue Street consensus of ~$20M (vs. CS est. of $19.9M). We await our August and September survey data to gain better insight into whether 3Q11 expectations are attainable."
For more ratings news on Human Genome Sciences click here and for the rating history of Human Genome Sciences click here.
Shares of Human Genome Sciences closed at $12.88 yesterday.
Collins analyst says, "Investment Thesis - 56% MoM Benlysta patient growth in July: For July, our Benlysta tracking survey (N=30) showed patient growth of 56% MoM (42 vs. 27 in June) with a 10% increase in physicians administering the drug (11 vs. 10 in June). While uptake was likely impacted by the July 4th holiday/seasonality, as evidenced by 2 physicians who delayed patient starts due to vacations, we believe August utilization expectations (14 physicians expect to treat 74 patients; 76% MoM growth) and the lack of significant reimbursement issues to date are positive. Extrapolating our survey results to the broader physician population, we arrive at July Benlysta sales of $4.3M vs. WK and IMS July sales of $4.9M (+5% MoM; 2 fewer treating days in July) and $5.0M (+20% MoM when June is adjusted for 1 additional prescribing week), respectively. Given that our survey projects August sales of $5.9M (may also be affected by seasonality), we believe robust uptake in September is required to achieve 3Q11 Benlysta revenue Street consensus of ~$20M (vs. CS est. of $19.9M). We await our August and September survey data to gain better insight into whether 3Q11 expectations are attainable."
For more ratings news on Human Genome Sciences click here and for the rating history of Human Genome Sciences click here.
Shares of Human Genome Sciences closed at $12.88 yesterday.
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