Clearwire (CLWR) is in the Catbird Seat; Shares Could More Than Double from Here

October 11, 2012 3:38 PM EDT
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For the first time in maybe forever Clearwire (NASDAQ: CLWR) is in the catbird seat.

It appears that in order to get a deal done with Softbank, Sprint (NYSE: S) may have to get a deal done with Clearwire first. This could raise the price of Clearwire sharply above the current market levels, analysts argue.

"If Sprint offered 0.87 shares for each share of Clearwire it would imply a $5 takeout price and the issuance of 665 million shares, or 18.6% of the company," BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk notes. "At 0.7 ratio would imply $4 takeout price and 535 million new sprint shares issued, or 15% of the company."

A deal at $4 would be nearly double the current market price of $2.05. A deal at $5 would come at a 144 percent premium.

Piecyk thinks Clearwire holders could justify holding out for at least $5/share for the 52% of stock that Sprint does not already own.

"That would imply $0.26/MHz-POP for their spectrum, the same price that Charlie Ergen paid for DBSD and TerreStar in bankruptcy courts," he said. " Even using only the spectrum in the top 35 markets would imply less than $0.60 per MHz-POP compared to the over $0.70 that Verizon paid to SpectrumCo."

Shares of Clearwire last traded at $2.05, up 57 percent.

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