Canaccord Genuity Morning Coffee on Universal Display (PANL): Shine A Light On Me
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On Monday, Canaccord Genuity Sustainability Analyst Jonathan Dorsheimer hosted an OLED workshop designed to educate investors on the following: IP, manufacturing roadmaps, and material performance, challenges and opportunities in large scale OLED applications. While he believes that the long-term bullish thesis remains intact, there are still some clear near-term challenges to be overcome in this technology that is still basically in its infancy, despite nearly 20 years of research. He notes that the OLED industry is clearly experiencing the difficulties that often hamper new technologies. In particular, Samsung has indeed experimented with green phosphorescent-doped materials; however, it has run into quenching issues (reduced phosphorescence) when combining red and green phosphorescent materials, resulting in low performance. The company hopes to have this solved exiting 2012, but this delay may affect material sales in the near term. Transistor backplane issues continue to be a major challenge in scaling from small to large area displays. Dorsheimer believe that this will continue to be a headwind over the next one to two years, which could delay the introduction of cost-competitive OLED TVs in 2013/14. Following the workshop he still believes that Universal Display has a very strong position on the phosphorescent market opportunity through 2017. However, core fundamental patents begin to expire in December of that year, which will likely weaken the patent portfolio and could render the recent European and Japanese invalidations/narrowing of certain claims quite important.
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Flip Flop
One thing to be aware of is that JD has flip flopped on his view of UDC presumably to fit his employer's or customers wishes. Go back in time and you'll see him sing a very different tune. What is the motivation for the switch now that UDC has essentially passed its inflection point for oled and reached a mass production strategic partnership with smd and signing up others in succession. Makes no sense.
Hubris?
Ignoring the potential revenue generated between now and 2017 is hubris for fear of what happens post 2017. OLED is not a drug to fix some medical ailment going off patent to generics rather its an evolving technology that is constantly improved and refined along with additional patents. To say that UDC wouldn't continue to weave a web of significant patents over the next 6 years is folly. Its way more complicated than simplifying it to "fundamental patents expire in 2017".
Dorsheimer
Has Dorsheimer talked to Universal Display about the quenching issue? If not, why not? If so, why not report what they said.?
All of UDC's public information talks about the cumulative efficiency effect of adding the green phosphorescent color to red. What percent of loss of efficiency is he claiming to be such an issue? For sounding like he understands the science, he omits a lot of information that could back up his claim. Canccord should be embarrassed.
Trust Discovery Capital on PANL
They have a 200M position, about 12% of the shares, and were buying on at 44$ and below in Q4..
http://whalewisdom.com/filer/discovery-capital-management-llc-ct
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Samsung or LG Display?
ZikZak on Feb 15, 2012 04:59 PMMark as Spam | Reply to this comment
streetinsider, would you check with your source on the Samsung reference in your story? Samsung uses patterned RGB subpixels in their commercial AMOLED products, including their announced 55 inch TV; there is no physical contact between the materials in their red and green subpixels. OTOH, LG Display reportedly uses white OLEDs (WOLEDs) with color filters in their announced 55 inch AMOLED TV. There is an emissive layer in their WOLED design with a mixture of red/green dopants. Therefore, I suspect that the reference may be to LG Display since the information is inconsistent with Samsung's design.