Canaccord Genuity Morning Coffee on Dendreon (DNDN) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Honeydew Sized Prostate

March 12, 2012 10:44 AM EDT
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Canaccord Genuity Morning Coffee on Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)

“I've got a prostate the size of a honeydew and a head full of bad memories.” – Maury Ballstein, Zoolander.

Shares of Dendreon continued to slide on Friday following Johnson & Johnson’s Wednesday announcement regarding its prostate cancer treatment, Zytiga, which competes with Dendreon’s Provenge solution. There was an early halt for efficacy of a a Phase III trail evaluating Zytiga in patients fitting the same clinical criteria specified for Provenge. Canaccord Genuity Life Sciences Analyst George Farmer believes this announcement came earlier than expected and raises the perception of competitive threats to Provenge sales. He believes the data from the trial, details of which have not been disclosed, will be ready by the American Society of Clinical Oncology’s annual June meeting and will be critical in assessing the prostate cancer treatment competitive landscape. Provenge demonstrated a 4.1-month OS benefit in this patient population, with without symptomatic relief that he believes Zytuiga will show. Farmer believes shares of Dendreon could remain under pressure into the June data presentation. That said, he continues to see more upside than downside at current trading levels on his view of $1-billion peak Provenge sales achievable in 2021, supported by his assessment of broad awareness and desire to prescribe Provenge among physicians and an improving reimbursement environment.

This morning, DNDN is trading flat on the session. JNJ is up about 0.27%.

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Analyst Comments, FDA


Zytiga trial results
Theodore J. Cohen on 2012-03-12 12:24:06
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Many on the Street still fail to grasp the significance of what happened when the Zytiga trial was stopped. The fact it, the trial, thus far, has not shown one of the end points - overall survival, or OS - to be stat sig. OS is THE gold standard in cancer trials, and without it, there's a very good chance Zytiga will not be approved in the pre-chemo environment. Proving OS now will become more and more difficult because patients from the placebo are crossing over and taking Zytiga. JNJ basically has until June to show OS is stat sig (at ASCO) or they can forget about pre-chemo approval.

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