Canaccord Genuity Morning Coffee on Apple (AAPL): Expanding Its Reach...

June 18, 2012 10:24 AM EDT
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Canaccord Genuity Morning Coffee on Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL): Expanding its reach...

Credit Suisse believes that Apple remains on track to tap the vast emerging market (EM) opportunity, especially after having captured $16 billion of the $86-billion incremental sales opportunity from EMs long term over the last 12 months. The brokerage’s analysis reveals that the EM opportunity, together with continued momentum in developed markets (DMs) could drive $159 billion of incremental sales and $40 in incremental EPS by 2015. In 2012, the brokerage estimates that the average middle class American (defined as $30,000+ of annual income) will spend $417 per year on Apple products, which will rise to $500 by 2015. Importantly, by 2015, there will be 244 million consumers in EMs with similar income profiles, up from 133 million in 2011. Assuming Apple addresses these markets from a distribution perspective, they believe this could drive an incremental $89 billion in sales and $21 of EPS by 2015. Within developed markets, they see per capita spend on Apple in regions like Western Europe, Japan and parts of Asia-Pacific, remaining lower than the levels seen in the North America region. Assuming people in these markets were to spend similar level on Apple on a per-capita basis in the long term as Credit Suisse estimates for North America, this would drive an incremental $69 billion of sales and $19 of EPS. This, combined with EM opportunity, could drive $40 of extra EPS from 2011 base of $35, resulting in long term EPS power of $75.

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