Broadpoint.Amtech Reiterates a 'Buy' on SunPower (SPWRA); Raises Q3 Estimates on Stronger European Demand
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Broadpoint.Amtech reiterates a 'Buy' on SunPower Corp. (Nasdaq: SPWRA)
Broadpoint analyst says, "We are moving our Q309 estimates higher due to better than expected demand in Germany and Italy. In addition, we now believe the risk to our FY10 estimates is to the upside given an expanding utility-scale pipeline and strength in the US ahead of ITC grant expiration, along with an improving commercial installation financing environment...Sentiment remains negative towards SPWRA/B, which we believe helps limit risk to the downside when coupled with improving demand and expanding operating margins in 2010. We would own SPWRA/B ahead of significant growth in 2010 with estimate revision bias to the upside."
"3Q09 Preview: We are modeling revenue of $435M (consensus $418M) and pro-forma EPS $0.42 (consensus $0.39). Key inputs include a 52% q/q increase in total shipments against a 7% q/q decline in ASPs. We are modeling a 55% increase in MW installed for the Systems business against moderate ASP declines...4Q09 Outlook: We expect the trajectory in Q4 to remain strong given historical SPWRA/B component seasonality (typically ~30% q/q revenue growth) and strength in the Systems business off of FPL pull-ins and an ongoing 24MW project in Montalto di Castro, Italy. We would caution flexibility as it relates to Systems business metrics given lumpiness in recognition (i.e. the trend is more important than 3-month results). We are modeling Q4 revenue and pro-forma EPS of $514M (consensus $486.4M) and $0.57 (consensus $0.49) respectively...We are currently modeling earnings ~20% above consensus for 2010. We expect strength in 1H10 in Italy to help offset seasonal weakness in Germany."
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