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Broadpoint.Amtech Maintains a 'Buy' on Activision (ATVI); Reiterating Guidance Helps Ease Investor Fears

November 6, 2009 11:43 AM EST
ATVI Hot Sheet
Rating Summary:
    6 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 16 | Down: 7 | New: 23
Broadpoint.Amtech maintains a 'Buy' rating on Activision, Inc. (Nasdaq: ATVI), price target $16.

Broadpoint analyst says, "ATVI became the third video game company in two days to reiterate guidance for the year. With low sentiment for the group, the reiterations should give investors some comfort that yes, Christmas is coming, even for the video game industry. Having said that, we continue to believe that the real story here is Blizzard and its ability to transform ATVI’s margin profile over time. Beginning in 2010, Blizzard moves from being a one-game story for investors (World of Warcraft) to launching StarCraft 2 and the new Battle.net. Despite the fact that ATVI has been a consensus long for some time, we still think that the Street will react positively once Blizzard’s potential is better understood. To get an idea of the passion and potential of Blizzard players, investors should look up “Spectral Tiger Loot Card” on eBay, where you’ll see many collectors paying upwards of $1,000 in the secondary market for the right to have their World of Warcraft character ride a digital translucent Tiger in the game. While somewhat amusing, the point, as we saw firsthand at Blizzcon, is that the Blizzard consumer is unique. Though we do not expect to see Blizzard trying to over-monetize and sell ultra-expensive content, the upside for Blizzard, if it continues to execute, is significant."

"No change to our estimates: Our 2009 and 2010 non-GAAP EPS estimates remain at $0.65 and $0.77, respectively. Our price target remains at $16, implying 21x our 2010 estimate."

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