Biogen (BIIB) Tecfidera May be Eroding Novartis's (NVS) Gilenya Growth

July 17, 2013 1:19 PM EDT
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In the view of Wells Fargo, Biogen's (NASDAQ: BIIB) Tecfidera could be eroding some of Novartis' (NYSE: NVS) Gilenya growth.

"Reported U.S. Gilenya sales were $255M, a modest 5% increase from last quarter's U.S. sales. This is lower than the average 13% qoq increases observed over the previous six quarters (and the 28% qoq increase from Q4 2012 to Q1 2013), suggesting that Tecfidera could be eroding some of Gilenya's growth though this is difficult to know for certain," said analyst Brian Abrahams.

Interestingly, Novartis Gilenya's market share 'remains stable while the the U.S. market grew, noted the analyst.

"For Gilenya's U.S. share to remain stable with a 5% sales increase, this implies that the overall U.S. MS market, which we believe is about $2.4B quarterly, also expanded about 5% (assuming sales approximate market share). Though it is difficult to calculate precisely given confounding factors such as historical price increases and FX fluctuations, we believe this is likely a greater run-rate than is typical perhaps suggesting at least a reasonable proportion of Tecfidera sales are initially coming from new patients to therapy rather than completely at the expense of sales or growth of existing drugs, including BIIB's," added Abrahams.

Wells Fargo has a Market Perform rating on Biogen.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Biogen (NASDAQ: BIIB) click here. For more ratings news on Biogen click here.

Shares of Biogen closed at $222.85 yesterday.

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