Biogen (BIIB) PT Lowered to $355 at Leerink Partners on Reduced Aducanumab Probability of Success
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Leerink Partners analyst Geoffrey Porges reduced Aducanumab probability of success and cut his price target on Biogen (NASDAQ: BIIB) price target of $355.00 (from $365.00) after Lilly announced on Wednesday that the EXPEDITION 3 study of solanezumab (sola) in mild Alzheimer's patients did not meet its primary or secondary endpoints, and while there was a trend in favor of the active arm, the effect was marginal, particularly given the size and sensitivity of the study. The firm maintained an Outperform rating on Biogen.
Porges commented, "Realistically this has to reduce our confidence in the “amyloid hypothesis” but we continue to believe that aducanumab has a substantially different profile than sola, and should benefit from a more rigorous trial design, with earlier stage patients, higher drug exposure and more complete case confirmation. Nevertheless we believe it is appropriate to reduce our probability of success for aducanumab to 35%, from the prior 65%; this change is substantially offset by the lower level of expected competition in the beta amyloid antibody class. Given that we know Lilly won’t be participating, the share available to Biogen/Eisai will certainly be larger, if their trials are successful."
Shares of Biogen closed at $305.93 yesterday.
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