Barclays on U.S. Department Stores/Broadlines: Review of November Sales; December Expectations
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8 Buy, 8 Hold, 2 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 19 | Down: 21 | New: 29
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Barclays on U.S. Department Stores/Broadlines: Review of November Sales
Barclays analyst, Robert S. Drbul, said, "The Barclays Capital Broadlines/Dept. Store Same Store Sales index increased 3.7% in November, below our expectation for an increase of 4.6% and compared to
a 7.1% increase last year. On a two-year basis, the index increased 10.8%, marking an acceleration from October, which was up 8.0%. November represented a tougher 2010 compare relative to December for several companies (Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Macy's (NYSE: M), J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), and Stage (NYSE: SSI)). Considering this and an extra selling day in December prior to Christmas, we continue to expect a greater portion of the holiday sales growth for many of these companies to occur in December. Black Friday weekend (with extended hours at several key retailers) seemed to fuel solid sales trends in most cases, yet in a few cases it was not enough to meet expectations for
the month. J.C. Penney (which opened at 4:00am) noted that it was adversely impacted by these earlier openings at other retailers. Walmart remains an obvious key missing piece to this analysis, especially this time of year, given the importance of its category participation in toys and electronics...Kohl's posted a very disappointing comp in November, down (6.2)%, well below our estimate."
The high-end retailers are off to a good start to the quarter and holiday season, outperforming the mid tier department stores. Saks (NYSE: SKS) led the way, with a nice recovery from the October results delivering a solid 9.3% increase, Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) performed essentially in line with our expectations at +5.6% (vs. our estimate of 5%-7%), and Macy's (comps +4.8% vs. our 3%-5%) noted strength at both Macy's and Bloomingdale's, with an acceleration at the end of the month."
"Looking to December, we expect the Barclays Capital Broadlines/Dept. Store Same Store Sales Index to increase 5.1%, and 8.9% on a two-year basis. We are now expecting our Index to be up 4.5% for the Holiday period (Nov/Dec) versus our previous estimate of 5.0%."
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Barclays analyst, Robert S. Drbul, said, "The Barclays Capital Broadlines/Dept. Store Same Store Sales index increased 3.7% in November, below our expectation for an increase of 4.6% and compared to
a 7.1% increase last year. On a two-year basis, the index increased 10.8%, marking an acceleration from October, which was up 8.0%. November represented a tougher 2010 compare relative to December for several companies (Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Macy's (NYSE: M), J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), and Stage (NYSE: SSI)). Considering this and an extra selling day in December prior to Christmas, we continue to expect a greater portion of the holiday sales growth for many of these companies to occur in December. Black Friday weekend (with extended hours at several key retailers) seemed to fuel solid sales trends in most cases, yet in a few cases it was not enough to meet expectations for
the month. J.C. Penney (which opened at 4:00am) noted that it was adversely impacted by these earlier openings at other retailers. Walmart remains an obvious key missing piece to this analysis, especially this time of year, given the importance of its category participation in toys and electronics...Kohl's posted a very disappointing comp in November, down (6.2)%, well below our estimate."
The high-end retailers are off to a good start to the quarter and holiday season, outperforming the mid tier department stores. Saks (NYSE: SKS) led the way, with a nice recovery from the October results delivering a solid 9.3% increase, Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) performed essentially in line with our expectations at +5.6% (vs. our estimate of 5%-7%), and Macy's (comps +4.8% vs. our 3%-5%) noted strength at both Macy's and Bloomingdale's, with an acceleration at the end of the month."
"Looking to December, we expect the Barclays Capital Broadlines/Dept. Store Same Store Sales Index to increase 5.1%, and 8.9% on a two-year basis. We are now expecting our Index to be up 4.5% for the Holiday period (Nov/Dec) versus our previous estimate of 5.0%."
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