Barclays on U.S. Department Stores/Broadlines: August Sales / BTS Preview
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Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 0 | Down: 0 | New: 8
Rating Summary:
11 Buy, 11 Hold, 0 Sell
Rating Trend:
Down
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 0 | Down: 0 | New: 8
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Barclays on U.S. Department Stores/Broadlines: August Sales / BTS Preview
Target (NYSE: TGT), BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), Saks (NYSE: SKS), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), Macy's (NYSE: M), and Stage Stores (NYSE: SSI) will report August sales results on Thursday, September 1.
"We are slightly lowering our Barclays Capital Broadlines/Dept. Stores Same
Store-Sales Index estimate for August to 4.7% from 5.0% given recent severe
weather. This reflects a continued positive trend compared to a 4.3% increase last year. On a two-year basis, we are expecting a 9.0% increase, which represents a slight decline from the double-digit growth on a two-year basis seen in February through July."
"Due to the impact of Hurricane Irene in the last weekend of the month, we expect that many retailers experienced a lag in traffic and a negative sales impact in locations along the East Coast. Stores carrying non-discretionary items such as food and other supplies may have seen a slight increase in activity as residents prepared for the storm. Overall, we believe that the impact from these events will be quite variable."
"We are maintaining our Stage Stores comp estimate of 0%-2%, and revising
our Kohl's and J.C. Penney estimates to 1%-3% and (1)%-1% from 2%-4% and 0%-2%, respectively, in part due to the expected impact of Hurricane Irene."
"Given the expectation that vendors and retailers will implement more significant price increases throughout the fall (compared to those this spring) to mitigate the effects of higher product costs, we are focused on August to provide early reads on consumer reactions and pricing elasticity. The majority of retailers have forecast higher AUR in the fall, with Macy's predicting an AUR increase of 5%-7%, and Target planning for double-digit increases in AUR in home and apparel in August and September. We expect comp increases of 2%-4% for Macy's and 2%-4% for Target. Though we believe that high end retailers are less likely to be negatively impacted by price increases given less consumer resistance, we note that the luxury space is more sensitive to macroeconomic softness. Based on recent uncertainty in the markets, the comparison against strong performance last August, and severe weather conditions, we are lowering our estimates for Nordstrom and Saks to 3%-5% and 4%-6% from 4%-6% and 5%-7%, respectively."
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Target (NYSE: TGT), BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), Saks (NYSE: SKS), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), Macy's (NYSE: M), and Stage Stores (NYSE: SSI) will report August sales results on Thursday, September 1.
"We are slightly lowering our Barclays Capital Broadlines/Dept. Stores Same
Store-Sales Index estimate for August to 4.7% from 5.0% given recent severe
weather. This reflects a continued positive trend compared to a 4.3% increase last year. On a two-year basis, we are expecting a 9.0% increase, which represents a slight decline from the double-digit growth on a two-year basis seen in February through July."
"Due to the impact of Hurricane Irene in the last weekend of the month, we expect that many retailers experienced a lag in traffic and a negative sales impact in locations along the East Coast. Stores carrying non-discretionary items such as food and other supplies may have seen a slight increase in activity as residents prepared for the storm. Overall, we believe that the impact from these events will be quite variable."
"We are maintaining our Stage Stores comp estimate of 0%-2%, and revising
our Kohl's and J.C. Penney estimates to 1%-3% and (1)%-1% from 2%-4% and 0%-2%, respectively, in part due to the expected impact of Hurricane Irene."
"Given the expectation that vendors and retailers will implement more significant price increases throughout the fall (compared to those this spring) to mitigate the effects of higher product costs, we are focused on August to provide early reads on consumer reactions and pricing elasticity. The majority of retailers have forecast higher AUR in the fall, with Macy's predicting an AUR increase of 5%-7%, and Target planning for double-digit increases in AUR in home and apparel in August and September. We expect comp increases of 2%-4% for Macy's and 2%-4% for Target. Though we believe that high end retailers are less likely to be negatively impacted by price increases given less consumer resistance, we note that the luxury space is more sensitive to macroeconomic softness. Based on recent uncertainty in the markets, the comparison against strong performance last August, and severe weather conditions, we are lowering our estimates for Nordstrom and Saks to 3%-5% and 4%-6% from 4%-6% and 5%-7%, respectively."
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