Barclays on U.S. Airlines: Revenue Trends in Context; Upside Potential Along Two Dimensions

Barclays on U.S. Airlines: Revenue Trends in Context; Upside Potential Along Two Dimensions

Barclays analyst said, "As fares climb rapidly to combat rising fuel prices, the market ponders the stickiness of these increases in what is still a tepid economy. Recovery to date has been impressive, but the industry's current revenue relative to GDP is very normal. More importantly, in a capacity controlled environment, we see upside potential along two dimensions, expansion in non-ticket revenue generation, and re-capturing 'wallet share' of travel spending. Against what we believe is still an improving industry backdrop, we continue to see compelling upside potential from current levels across the sector. Top picks remain United (NYSE: UAL), Delta (NYSE: DAL), and AMR Corp (NYSE: AMR)."

"Our revenue estimates have come a long way in a very short period of time amid what many continue to believe is a tepid economy. The upside in revenue expectations seems to be causing concern in the marketplace. However, our revised expectations seem very consistent with historical norms relative to GDP, even when we consider the impact of non-ticket revenue."

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