Barclays on Energy: 2Q11 Earnings Surprise & Preview: Estimates Modestly Below Consensus
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Rating Summary:
19 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 17 | Down: 14 | New: 17
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Barclays on Energy: 2Q11 Earnings Surprise & Preview: Estimates Modestly Below Consensus
Barclays analyst says, "We think 2Q11 consensus estimates may be a little high for the integrated oil sector while refiners will likely report mixed results depending on the location of the refineries. We lower our Integrated Oils EPS forecasts in both 2Q11 and 2011. For the Refiners, we raise our 2011 EPS forecasts while slightly increasing the 2Q11 median average.
Biggest Potential 2Q11 Upside Surprise: Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC), Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO). Biggest Potential 2Q11 Downside Surprises: Sunoco (NYSE: SUN), Hess Corp (NYSE: HES).
"We mark-to-market our 2Q11 oil price (Brent) to $116.2/bl from $125.0/bl previously, while changing our WTI price to $101.1/bl from $115.5/bl. We also adjust our 2011 Brent assumption to $110.6/bl from $117.7/bl, while WTI assumption is now $99.6/bl versus $110.7/bl previously. In addition, we modestly adjusted our 2012 Brent assumption to $110.0/bl from $112.5/bl, while lowering our WTI assumption to $101.3/bl from $107.8/bl. We kept our long-term Brent assumption in our valuation model unchanged at $100/bl."
"We lower the Integrated Oils EPS forecasts by an average of 17% in 2Q11 and 12% in 2011. For the Refiners, we raise 2011 EPS forecasts by 70% while increasing the 2Q11 median average by 11%."
Barclays analyst says, "We think 2Q11 consensus estimates may be a little high for the integrated oil sector while refiners will likely report mixed results depending on the location of the refineries. We lower our Integrated Oils EPS forecasts in both 2Q11 and 2011. For the Refiners, we raise our 2011 EPS forecasts while slightly increasing the 2Q11 median average.
Biggest Potential 2Q11 Upside Surprise: Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC), Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO). Biggest Potential 2Q11 Downside Surprises: Sunoco (NYSE: SUN), Hess Corp (NYSE: HES).
"We mark-to-market our 2Q11 oil price (Brent) to $116.2/bl from $125.0/bl previously, while changing our WTI price to $101.1/bl from $115.5/bl. We also adjust our 2011 Brent assumption to $110.6/bl from $117.7/bl, while WTI assumption is now $99.6/bl versus $110.7/bl previously. In addition, we modestly adjusted our 2012 Brent assumption to $110.0/bl from $112.5/bl, while lowering our WTI assumption to $101.3/bl from $107.8/bl. We kept our long-term Brent assumption in our valuation model unchanged at $100/bl."
"We lower the Integrated Oils EPS forecasts by an average of 17% in 2Q11 and 12% in 2011. For the Refiners, we raise 2011 EPS forecasts by 70% while increasing the 2Q11 median average by 11%."
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