Apple (AAPL) Overtakes Samsung in MKM Survey; BlackBerry (BBRY), Nokia (NOK) Unlikely to Challenge Duopoly

May 14, 2013 1:11 PM EDT
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A study from MKM Intelligence Community released Tuesday showed that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has overtaken Samsung in the smartphone war and that Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) are unlikely to challenge the strengthening Apple/Samsung duopoly.

The firm's survey showed that smartphone penetration in the U.S. has grown considerably (to 56% in May 2013 from 37% in October 2012) and purchasing intentions have strengthened (24% intend to purchase or upgrade to a new smartphone in the next three to six months, up from 19% in October’s survey). "While we believe the data is positive for the U.S. smartphone market, it begins to raise the concern that the market may quickly approach full penetration, at which point the replacement cycle would become the dominant driver of purchasing trends," MKM said.

On Apple, the firm notes that while it lagged Samsung in their first survey, that has reversed. The most recent survey showed Apple's market share has surged to 30%, overtaking Samsung at 28%, and near-term purchase intentions now favor Apple (30%) over Samsung (28%).

On the strengthen Apple/Samsung duopoly, the survey showed fifty-seven percent of respondents who intend on purchasing a new phone in the near-term plan to purchase either an Apple or Samsung, which is up significantly from 43% in October's survey.

On BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) (Sell), the firm notes that despite the BlackBerry Z10 U.S. launch in late March current ownership trends have held steady at a meager 6% from Oct. 2012 to May 2013. The Q10 is not likely to help much. "With the upcoming BlackBerry Q10 U.S. launch expected later this month, near-term purchasing intentions paint an uninspiring picture for BlackBerry as only 6% of respondents who plan on purchasing a new smartphone in the next three to six months say they will buy a BlackBerry, up slightly from 5% in Oct.," MKM said.

On Nokia, MKM said it is nearing a rounding error. "Based on our survey currently 1% of respondents own a Nokia smartphone, down from nearly 3% in Oct. It is unlikely the brand will rebound since under 2% of respondents with near-term smartphone purchasing plans intend on buying a Nokia (up from 1% in Oct.)." MKM said.

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Analyst Comments


re:The Q10 is not likely to help much.
Paul Fezziwig on 2013-05-15 16:36:01
Mark as Spam | Reply to this comment

The Q10 is a far more popular phone than the Z10 you idiot.

An increase of 1% market share for Blackberry represent a 20% improvement, that's amazing on its own, without the Q10 its incredible.

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