Apple (AAPL) iPhone 7/7+ Shipment Data Remain Extended; Demand is Likely Factor - BTIG

September 30, 2016 7:19 AM EDT
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BTIG was out with a bit of commentary on Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) earlier Friday morning with respect to the company's current iPhone 7/7+ shipment schedule.

Analyst Walter Piecyk commented today: The iPhone 7 has been on sale for two weeks, so we thought it might be a good time to compare the estimated shipment times to prior years in order to try to get a sense of consumer interest in the new product. The initial results indicate longer waits for iPhones and are supportive to our thesis that Apple can return to growth in the December quarter. Clearly, Apple’s allocation of iPhone supply can impact this analysis, but the growth in orders cited by the operators we have spoken with in the United States AND Europe over the past two weeks suggest that demand is likely the driving factor.

Piecyk continued:

We are two weeks into the launch of the iPhone 7 and estimated shipping dates are longer than they were two weeks into last year’s iPhone 6s/6s+ launch. For example, the online Apple store estimates ship times of 14-21 days for all iPhone 7 models (other than Jet Black) compared to 3-5 days for the iPhone 6s last year and 7-10 days for the iPhone 6. There are some distribution channels that are showing shorter ship times for the iPhone 7. For example, a T-Mobile 128GB iPhone 7 is shipping in 2-9 days compared to 28-42 days for the 64GB iPhone 6s last year.

The iPhone 7+ is experiencing even longer shipping estimates for nearly all models and across all distribution points when compared to last year. In fact, at Verizon it takes 48-62 days to get a mid-range iPhone 7+ compared to 21-28 days last year for an iPhone 6s+. We have not yet been able to receive any additional qualitative commentary from operators that supports a thesis to a mix shift to the larger screen 7+. If that were the case our ASP estimates might end up being too conservative.



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