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Apple (AAPL) Stock Down Into iPhone Event for First Time Since Original Released - Analyst

September 4, 2015 11:31 AM EDT
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Price: $173.72 +0.64%

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    40 Buy, 24 Hold, 7 Sell

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Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 20 | Down: 14 | New: 22
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BTIG analyst Walt Piecyk had interesting research today on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) into the company's September 9th iPhone event.

Piecyk notes that for the first time since the original iPhone was released in 2007, the stock is down in the month preceding the announcement (currently -6.2%). In past iPhone refresh cycles, Apple's stock has run up as much as 12% into the events.

The analyst does note, however, that this cycle, unlike in 2007, Apple's stock is still outperforming the S&P 500, which has been decimated in recent weeks on China and global growth concerns.

Meanwhile, given that there are usually very few surprises now at the iPhone events, due in part to blogs like 9to5 Mac, Apple stock has been down an average of 0.4% over the past three years on the day of the announcement, versus a historical gain of 0.2% on announcement day.

Data shows the day after the iPhone event the stock is more volatile, although its pretty evenly split between up years and down with average performance of +1.8% on the day after and -1.5% the month after.

Bottom line, Piecyk said, "good luck predicting next week but enjoy the data below on what has happened in past years."



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