Analysts Expecting Higher Bids for Amylin (AMLN)
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A number of analysts have issued insightful comments following this morning's report Amylin (Nasdaq: AMLN) rejected a $22/share bid from Bristol-Myers (NYSE: BMY) last month. Investors are certainly cheering the rumor Wednesday. Amylin shares have surged a whopping 48 percent to $22.78.
Around the Street:
Around the Street:
- Deutsche Bank - Believes Bristol as an acquirer would make sense. Bristol "already has a large diabetes sales force in place (~700 sales reps in the US) hence there are many potential expense synergies." Deutsche Bank believes Amlyin could be worth up to $31/share given an "acquirer with diabetes sales force can cut SG&A by 80% and R&D by 40%."
The firm maintains a Hold rating on the stock.
- Piper Jaffray - Although the firm downgraded the stock this morning, analyst Ian Somaiya feels Amylin could be worth $28-$37/share in a takeover. He suggested the lower end would be more likely amid the high costs of manufacturing and marketing exenatide. Somaiya named potential suitors as Bristol, Merck (NYSE: MRK) or Takeda.
Piper now has a Neutral rating on Amylin.
- Leerink Swann - Likened this morning's Bloomberg report to the deal between Genzyme and Sanofi (NYSE: SNY): "We generally believe these stories are 'leaks' that serve a purpose. In this case, the purpose of the announcement, we believe, is to tie AMLN's hands and prevent them from doing an ex-US deal instead of a sale." Leerink noted Bristol may not be the best bidder. "Companies like AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) could drive superior value of the exenatide franchise on a global basis...we believe shares have a reasonable floor, the company has a legitimate chance of finding a higher bidder."
Maintains an Outperform rating.
- Bernstein - AstraZeneca's current diabetes deals with Bristol do not prevent the former from bidding against the latter for Amylin.
- Baird - "Take-out speculation can cut both ways, and business development talks were only one element of our thesis, but big picture we've viewed AMLN's assets as better off unencumbered since November, view BMY as a potential strategic fit, and believe Bydureon's early launch is going well," the firm said.
Maintains Outperform rating.
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Related EntitiesPiper Jaffray, Deutsche Bank, Robert W Baird, Genzyme/Sanofi-Aventis
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