Amazon (AMZN) Sees Slower Growth on Cyber Monday, eBay (EBAY) Flat from 2013 - Cowen

Cowen and Company offered an update on e-Commerce names following Cyber Week sales:

AMZN & EBAY Cyber Week Results within the Context of 4Q14 Guidance

AMZN’s Cyber Week sales grew 24% y/y per CA (vs. 35% last year), with growth peaking on Sat 11/27 (+45% y/y), while Cyber Monday grew 14% y/y (down from 46% y/y growth last year). This year Cyber Week appears to be a longer promotional period than '13 (last year Saturday excluded from promotion). In our view this explains the slowdown on Cyber Monday. Holiday sales are factored into AMZN’s 4Q guidance which calls for top-line growth to range from 7% to 18% y/y (includes ~250bps FX headwind). We forecast $29.6BN in revenue, up 16% y/y, in-line with consensus estimates. The early seasonal sales data coupled with our recent work on NA Media market (see LINK) don’t offer any reason to increase our 4Q14 topline forecast.

EBAY’s Cyber Week sales grew 21% y/y per ChannelAdvisor (vs. 30% last year), with growth peaking on Cyber Monday which grew 32% y/y (in-line with 32% y/y growth last year). We forecast Marketplace revenue of $2.3BN (+2% y/y) in 4Q14, though our recent work which suggests EBAY is improving following the Panda update and security breach earlier in the year (See LINK to our October Retail Tracker for more details); overall we forecast $4.9BN in net revenue, up 9% y/y, in-line with the high end of guidance and consensus forecasts.

2014 Holiday Shopping Roundup

comScore kicked off the Holiday Shopping Season with its growth forecast of +16% y/y for online retail spending during the official Nov-Dec '14 holiday season, driven by +14% y/y growth in desktop spending and +25% y/y increase across mobile. Following Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, comScore estimates retail ecommerce spending was up 15% y/y season to date, roughly in-line with their estimates thus far.

IBM estimates “Cyber Week” sales were +12.6% y/y, driven by exceptional mobile sales growth (+27% y/y). On Cyber Monday, the top online shopping day, sales were +8.5% y/y despite the average order value declining ~4% y/y to ~$124. IBM also said online Home Goods sales were a clear outperformer growing ~28% y/y with an average order of ~$248 (+11% y/y), a potential positive for Wayfair.

ChannelAdvisor estimates SSS across its clients during the same 5-day period were up 20.6% y/y, with AMZN (+24% y/y) followed by EBAY (+21% y/y). Looking at Cyber Monday trends specifically, CA estimates SSS were up ~17% y/y, led by EBAY (+32% y/y), while AMZN (+14% y/y) experienced slightly softer trends.

You May Also Be Interested In

• Stifel Upgrades Barry Callebaut AG (BARN:SW) (BYCBF) to Buy
• RBC Capital Upgrades Admiral Group Plc. (ADM:LN) (AMIGY) to Outperform
• Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) PT Raised to $92 at TD Cowen